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Netherlands W vs South Africa W — Friendlies Women 2026

Netherlands W
Netherlands W
CANC
13:00
South Africa W
South Africa W
7/3/2021Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 1MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Netherlands W76%
×Draw14%
South Africa W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands W
2.74
South Africa W
0.85

Netherlands W creates 222% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Netherlands W
3.19
South Africa W
1.00

allows per match

Netherlands W
0.71
South Africa W
2.29

finishing

Netherlands W+0.00on par
South Africa W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands W ↓

South Africa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Netherlands W or draw
91%
Netherlands W or South Africa W
86%
Draw or South Africa W
24%

Winning margin

Netherlands W wins by 2+
55%
South Africa W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Netherlands W 1+ goals
93%
Netherlands W 2+ goals
75%
Netherlands W 3+ goals
51%
South Africa W 1+ goals
57%
South Africa W 2+ goals
21%
South Africa W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Netherlands W (draw refunded)
89%
South Africa W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands W at home — creates 3.19, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

South Africa W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands W attack 3.19 + South Africa W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.74

South Africa W attack 1.00 + Netherlands W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Netherlands W scores more
76%
level
14%
South Africa W scores more
9%

Netherlands W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Netherlands W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Netherlands W host South Africa W

July 3, 2021: Netherlands W take on South Africa W in Friendlies Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Netherlands W host South Africa W at MAC³PARK Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.