Netherlands 4–0 Lithuania: Result & Stats

Netherlands

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lithuania

D. Malen 62'

X. Simons 60'

C. Gakpo 58' (pen)

T. Reijnders 16'

11/17/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 10Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Netherlands80%

×Draw14%

Lithuania5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NetherlandsExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.45

Netherlands

2.38

Lithuania

0.45

Netherlands creates 429% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

0.50

0.40

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Netherlands

3.00

Lithuania

0.50

allows per match

Netherlands

0.40

Lithuania

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Netherlands or draw

95%

Netherlands or Lithuania

86%

Draw or Lithuania

20%

Winning margin

Netherlands wins by 2+

57%

Lithuania wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Netherlands 1+ goals

91%

Netherlands 2+ goals

68%

Netherlands 3+ goals

42%

Lithuania 1+ goals

36%

Lithuania 2+ goals

8%

Lithuania 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Netherlands (draw refunded)

94%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands attack 3.00 + Lithuania defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Lithuania attack 0.50 + Netherlands defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Netherlands scores more

80%

level

14%

Lithuania scores more

5%

Netherlands at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Netherlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Gakpo

Netherlands · F

8.6

Match Events

16'

T. Reijnders↳ F. de Jong

23'

Pijus Širvys

46'

M. Beneta← P. Sirvys

46'

P. Golubickas← G. Sirgedas

56'

Matthijs de LigtPenalty confirmed

58'

C. GakpoPenalty

59'

G. Paulauskas← F. Cernych

60'

X. Simons↳ C. Gakpo

62'

D. Malen↳ T. Reijnders

63'

E. Emegha← M. Depay

64'

L. Geertruida← J. Timber

64'

Q. Timber← F. de Jong

78'

L. Valente← X. Simons

79'

N. Lang← C. Gakpo

81'

M. Burba← T. Kalinauskas

84'

Gytis Paulauskas

85'

K. Upstas← J. Lasickas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NetherlandsLithuania

Overview

69%Possession31%

20Total Shots9

3.20Expected Goals (xG)0.47

5Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots9

8On Target1

8Off Target5

4Blocked3

15Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

69%Possession31%

572Total Passes259

497Accurate Passes192

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1