Lithuania 2–3 Netherlands: Result & Stats

Lithuania

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Netherlands

E. Girdvainis 43'

G. Gineitis 36'

M. Depay 63', 11'

Q. Timber 33'

9/7/2025

League #32 · Group Stage - 6S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lithuania38%

×Draw23%

Netherlands38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LithuaniaExpected goals in this matchNetherlands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

Lithuania

1.60

Netherlands

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.60

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Lithuania

1.40

Netherlands

1.60

allows per match

Lithuania

1.60

Netherlands

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lithuania+0.00on par

Netherlands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lithuania ↓

Netherlands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lithuania or draw

62%

Lithuania or Netherlands

77%

Draw or Netherlands

62%

Winning margin

Lithuania wins by 2+

19%

Netherlands wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lithuania 1+ goals

80%

Lithuania 2+ goals

47%

Lithuania 3+ goals

22%

Netherlands 1+ goals

80%

Netherlands 2+ goals

47%

Netherlands 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Lithuania (draw refunded)

50%

Netherlands (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lithuania at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Netherlands away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lithuania attack 1.40 + Netherlands defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Netherlands attack 1.60 + Lithuania defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lithuania scores more

38%

level

23%

Netherlands scores more

38%

Lithuania at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lithuania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Depay

Netherlands · F

8.6

Match Events

11'

M. Depay↳ C. Gakpo

28'

Justas Lasickas

33'

Q. Timber

36'

G. Gineitis↳ J. Lasickas

43'

E. Girdvainis↳ G. Gineitis

46'

M. Vorobjovas← D. Antanavicius

46'

G. Paulauskas← R. Jansonas

50'

M. Beneta← K. Upstas

62'

J. Timber← S. de Vrij

62'

M. van de Ven← N. Ake

62'

S. Steijn← T. Reijnders

63'

M. Depay↳ D. Dumfries

67'

P. Golubickas← G. Sirgedas

76'

V. Magdusauskas← A. Dolznikov

84'

W. Weghorst← M. Depay

89'

M. de Ligt← D. Malen

90+4'

Paulius Golubickas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LithuaniaNetherlands

Overview

27%Possession73%

4Total Shots14

0.33Expected Goals (xG)1.00

1Corners7

13Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots14

3On Target7

0Off Target4

1Blocked3

4Inside Box9

0Outside Box5

Passing

27%Possession73%

229Total Passes631

162Accurate Passes552

71%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0