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Netherlands U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Netherlands U19
Netherlands U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Spain U19
Spain U19
O. Diallo 89'
H. Lopez 74'
J. Salinas 56'
3/31/2026UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Netherlands U1937%
×Draw25%
Spain U1938%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U19
1.39
Spain U19
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Netherlands U19
1.95
Spain U19
2.17

allows per match

Netherlands U19
0.65
Spain U19
0.83

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par
Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Spain U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw
62%
Netherlands U19 or Spain U19
75%
Draw or Spain U19
63%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+
17%
Spain U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals
75%
Netherlands U19 2+ goals
40%
Netherlands U19 3+ goals
16%
Spain U19 1+ goals
76%
Spain U19 2+ goals
41%
Spain U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Spain U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Spain U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Spain U19 attack 2.17 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more
37%
level
25%
Spain U19 scores more
38%

Spain U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
J. Salinas↳ D. Yanez
58'
T. van den Elshout← S. Kluivert
58'
J. Koller← T. Kraaijeveld
68'
L. Oldenstam← M. van der Lans
68'
E. Gurbuz← A. Thomas
74'
H. Lopez
77'
J. Mustapha← L. Jetten
78'
A. Navarro← J. Morante
78'
D. A. Zarate Hidalgo← X. Espart
81'
J. Salinas
85'
L. Oldenstam
85'
O. Diallo← H. Lopez
85'
Q. Junyent← D. Aguado
89'
O. Diallo↳ T. Pitarch
89'
J. Gaitan← A. Antanon
90+1'
A. Bouwman
90+3'
O. Diallo
Netherlands
Spain
Adil Ramzi
Manager: Adil Ramzi
58'▲T. van den Elshout←▼S. Kluivert
58'▲J. Koller←▼T. Kraaijeveld
68'▲L. Oldenstam←▼M. van der Lans
68'▲E. Gurbuz←▼A. Thomas
77'▲J. Mustapha←▼L. Jetten
Paco Gallardo
Manager: Paco Gallardo
78'▲A. Navarro←▼J. Morante
78'▲D. A. Zarate Hidalgo←▼X. Espart
85'▲O. Diallo←▼H. Lopez
85'▲Q. Junyent←▼D. Aguado
89'▲J. Gaitan←▼A. Antanon

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 0–3 Spain U19

Spain U19 beat Netherlands U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 31, 2026.

Goals: J. Salinas (56'), H. Lopez (74'), O. Diallo (89').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor in Benidorm.