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Netherlands U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Netherlands U19
Netherlands U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spain U19
Spain U19
Alejandro Marqués 90'
3/26/2019UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 5Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Netherlands U1952%
×Draw20%
Spain U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Netherlands U19
2.41
Spain U19
1.78

Netherlands U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Netherlands U19
4.13
Spain U19
2.81

allows per match

Netherlands U19
0.75
Spain U19
0.69

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par
Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Spain U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw
71%
Netherlands U19 or Spain U19
80%
Draw or Spain U19
48%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+
32%
Spain U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals
91%
Netherlands U19 2+ goals
69%
Netherlands U19 3+ goals
43%
Spain U19 1+ goals
83%
Spain U19 2+ goals
53%
Spain U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Spain U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 4.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.81, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 4.13 + Spain U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 2.41

Spain U19 attack 2.81 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more
52%
level
20%
Spain U19 scores more
29%

Netherlands U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
Alejandro Marqués

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Netherlands U19 vs Spain U19

Spain U19 beat Netherlands U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on March 26, 2019.

Goals: Alejandro Marqués (90').

The match was played at Sportpark de Boshoek in Hardenberg.