Netherlands U19 4–0 Moldova U19: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Moldova U19

E. Emegha 56' (pen), 27'

X. Simons 43'

N. Ünüvar 24' (pen)

11/10/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Shefayim National Team Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Netherlands U1980%

×Draw14%

Moldova U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchMoldova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.49

Netherlands U19

2.44

Moldova U19

0.49

Netherlands U19 creates 398% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.95

creates per match

0.33

0.65

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Netherlands U19

1.95

Moldova U19

0.33

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.65

Moldova U19

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Moldova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Moldova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

94%

Netherlands U19 or Moldova U19

86%

Draw or Moldova U19

20%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

57%

Moldova U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

91%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

70%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

43%

Moldova U19 1+ goals

39%

Moldova U19 2+ goals

9%

Moldova U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

93%

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Moldova U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Moldova U19 defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.44

Moldova U19 attack 0.33 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

80%

level

14%

Moldova U19 scores more

6%

Netherlands U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

N. ÜnüvarPenalty

27'

E. Emegha

43'

X. Simons

46'

F. de Jong← N. Ünüvar

46'

C. Axenti← C. Staver

46'

V. Bîtlan← D. Forov

46'

V. Răileanu← V. Bulmaga

56'

T. Butucel← A. Macovei

56'

E. EmeghaPenalty

64'

K. Fitz-Jim← G. Caschili

64'

S. Lagsir← E. Emegha

67'

P. Cucereavenco← I. Botnari

76'

M. Jimenez← L. Hartjes

76'

M. Rijks← M. van Brederode

Netherlands

Moldova

1

Lazar

2

▼

Bulmaga

7

▼

11

10

18

9

14

▼

Staver

20

▼

Forov

19

▼

4

16

10

14

15

18

⚽

Simons

4

▼

Caschili

9

▼

Hartjes

19

⚽

▼

Ünüvar

20

▼

Brederode

7

⚽2

▼

Emegha

2

Benita

Manager: B. Konterman

46'▲F. de Jong←▼N. Ünüvar

64'▲K. Fitz-Jim←▼G. Caschili

64'▲S. Lagsir←▼E. Emegha

76'▲M. Jimenez←▼L. Hartjes

76'▲M. Rijks←▼M. van Brederode

Netherlands U19 substitutes

5Jong8Fitz-Jim12Lagsir11Jimenez17Rijks13Limouri3Bynoe6Dirksen1Roefs

Manager: S. Secu

46'▲C. Axenti←▼C. Staver

46'▲V. Bîtlan←▼D. Forov

46'▲V. Răileanu←▼V. Bulmaga

56'▲T. Butucel←▼A. Macovei

67'▲P. Cucereavenco←▼I. Botnari

Moldova U19 substitutes

5Axenti3Bîtlan17Răileanu8Butucel13Cucereavenco16Dosca6Scurtul12Savocica15Zavalișca

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 4–0 Moldova U19

Netherlands U19 beat Moldova U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 10, 2021.

Goals: N. Ünüvar (24' pen), E. Emegha (27', 56' pen), X. Simons (43').

The match was played at Shefayim National Team Complex in Shefayim.

Netherlands U19 vs Moldova U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Netherlands U19 4–0 Moldova U19