Netherlands U19 5–0 Moldova U19: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Moldova U19

D. Redan 69', 67'

J. Zirkzee 51'

S. van den Berg 33'

W. Burger 27'

10/8/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Zemgales Olimpiskā centra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Netherlands U1994%

×Draw5%

Moldova U191%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchMoldova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.87

0.38

Netherlands U19

3.87

Moldova U19

0.38

Netherlands U19 creates 918% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

4.13

creates per match

0.00

0.75

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Netherlands U19

4.13

Moldova U19

0.00

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.75

Moldova U19

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Moldova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Moldova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–12%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–015%

4–16%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

99%

Netherlands U19 or Moldova U19

95%

Draw or Moldova U19

6%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

82%

Moldova U19 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

98%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

89%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

71%

Moldova U19 1+ goals

32%

Moldova U19 2+ goals

6%

Moldova U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

99%

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 4.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Moldova U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 4.13 + Moldova U19 defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.87

Moldova U19 attack 0.00 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

94%

level

5%

Moldova U19 scores more

1%

Netherlands U19 at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

V. Gaiu← D. Zămosteanu

27'

W. Burger

28'

M. Dolghi← I. Gurulea

33'

51'

67'

69'

70'

E. Llansana← K. Goudmijn

70'

L. van Gelderen← J. Timber

70'

M. Pherai← R. Gravenberch

70'

V. Besuijen← A. van der Heide

77'

D. Danu← D. Puscas

77'

N. Namalovan← A. Stratan

82'

M. Kreekels← S. van den Berg

Netherlands

Moldova

1

3

4

6

14

5

8

▼

Gurulea

7

Cesnocov

10

▼

Puscas

9

▼

Zămostean

11

▼

Stratan

1

Bakker

2

▼

Timber

4

Hendriks

3

⚽

▼

Berg

5

Gullit

10

▼

Gravenber

8

⚽

Burger

6

▼

Goudmijn

9

⚽2

Redan

11

▼

Heide

19

⚽

Zirkzee

Manager: M. Stekelenburg

70'▲E. Llansana←▼K. Goudmijn

70'▲L. van Gelderen←▼J. Timber

70'▲M. Pherai←▼R. Gravenberch

70'▲V. Besuijen←▼A. van der Heide

82'▲M. Kreekels←▼S. van den Berg

Netherlands U19 substitutes

15Llansana22Gelderen20Pherai17Besuijen14Kreekels12Rooij7Summerville16Koorevaar18Azarkan

Manager: O. Fistican

22'▲V. Gaiu←▼D. Zămosteanu

28'▲M. Dolghi←▼I. Gurulea

77'▲D. Danu←▼D. Puscas

77'▲N. Namalovan←▼A. Stratan

Moldova U19 substitutes

2Gaiu17Dolghi20Danu19Namalovan16Ciobanu15Ștefan12Malac18Gheorghiu

UEFA U19 Championship: Netherlands U19 5–0 Moldova U19

Netherlands U19 beat Moldova U19 5-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 8, 2019.

Goals: W. Burger (27'), S. van den Berg (33'), J. Zirkzee (51'), D. Redan (67', 69').

The match was played at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra in Jelgava.

Netherlands U19 vs Moldova U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship: Netherlands U19 5–0 Moldova U19