Netherlands U19 5–0 Cyprus U19: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Cyprus U19

X. Simons 59'

M. van Brederode 57'

F. Kotsónis 40' (OG)

F. de Jong 29', 19'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Shefayim National Team Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Netherlands U1969%

×Draw20%

Cyprus U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19Expected goals in this matchCyprus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.61

Netherlands U19

1.94

Cyprus U19

0.61

Netherlands U19 creates 218% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.95

creates per match

0.58

0.65

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Netherlands U19

1.95

Cyprus U19

0.58

allows per match

Netherlands U19

0.65

Cyprus U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 ↓

Cyprus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 or draw

89%

Netherlands U19 or Cyprus U19

80%

Draw or Cyprus U19

31%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

43%

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

86%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

58%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

30%

Cyprus U19 1+ goals

46%

Cyprus U19 2+ goals

13%

Cyprus U19 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Cyprus U19 away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 attack 1.95 + Cyprus U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.94

Cyprus U19 attack 0.58 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Netherlands U19 scores more

69%

level

20%

Cyprus U19 scores more

11%

Netherlands U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

F. de Jong

29'

F. de Jong

40'

F. KotsónisOwn goal

46'

K. Christou← P. Fokás

57'

M. van Brederode

59'

X. Simons

62'

A. Nikolettidis← G. Pontikou

62'

K. Marneros← G. Pavlides

63'

J. Bynoe← L. Hartjes

63'

J. Dirksen← B. Meijer

63'

S. Lagsir← X. Simons

75'

F. Limouri← J. Hubner

75'

M. Rijks← M. van Brederode

75'

A. Zefki← F. Kotsónis

90'

M. Kokkinoftas← A. Evangelou

Netherlands

Cyprus

1

6

5

3

2

▼

Evangelou

13

🥅

▼

Kotsónis

18

▼

Fokás

10

Fóti

20

Vrontis

19

▼

Pavlides

7

▼

Pontikou

16

Heuvel

10

▼

Hubner

14

▼

Meijer

8

Fitz-Jim

5

⚽2

Jong

15

Regeer

18

⚽

▼

Simons

9

▼

Hartjes

20

⚽

▼

Brederode

7

Emegha

2

Benita

Manager: B. Konterman

63'▲J. Bynoe←▼L. Hartjes

63'▲J. Dirksen←▼B. Meijer

63'▲S. Lagsir←▼X. Simons

75'▲F. Limouri←▼J. Hubner

75'▲M. Rijks←▼M. van Brederode

Netherlands U19 substitutes

3Bynoe6Dirksen12Lagsir13Limouri17Rijks1Roefs4Caschili11Jimenez19Ünüvar

Manager: S. Jovanovic

46'▲K. Christou←▼P. Fokás

62'▲A. Nikolettidis←▼G. Pontikou

62'▲K. Marneros←▼G. Pavlides

75'▲A. Zefki←▼F. Kotsónis

90'▲M. Kokkinoftas←▼A. Evangelou

Cyprus U19 substitutes

8Christou9Nikolettidis15Marneros11Zefki4Kokkinoftas16Okkas17Koutsakos12Koutsou14Kyriakidis