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Nesebar vs Minyor Radnevo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
1 – 0
Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
11/16/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Nesebar61%
×Draw21%
Minyor Radnevo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
1.98
Minyor Radnevo
0.97

Nesebar creates 104% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 27 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Minyor Radnevo
1.00

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Minyor Radnevo
1.04

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Minyor Radnevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
82%
Nesebar or Minyor Radnevo
79%
Draw or Minyor Radnevo
39%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
37%
Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
86%
Nesebar 2+ goals
59%
Nesebar 3+ goals
31%
Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
62%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
25%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
77%
Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.98

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nesebar scores more
61%
level
21%
Minyor Radnevo scores more
18%

Nesebar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nesebar 1 – 0 Minyor Radnevo

Nesebar beat Minyor Radnevo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.