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Minyor Radnevo vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Minyor Radnevo
Minyor Radnevo
CANC
15:00
Nesebar
Nesebar
5/23/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 33Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Minyor Radnevo52%
×Draw25%
Nesebar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Minyor Radnevo
1.61
Nesebar
0.99

Minyor Radnevo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 99 away

creates per match

Minyor Radnevo
1.85
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Minyor Radnevo
0.44
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minyor Radnevo ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Minyor Radnevo or draw
77%
Minyor Radnevo or Nesebar
75%
Draw or Nesebar
48%

Winning margin

Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+
27%
Nesebar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals
80%
Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals
48%
Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals
22%
Nesebar 1+ goals
63%
Nesebar 2+ goals
26%
Nesebar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)
69%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minyor Radnevo at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.85 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Minyor Radnevo defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Minyor Radnevo scores more
52%
level
25%
Nesebar scores more
23%

Minyor Radnevo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Minyor Radnevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Minyor Radnevo face Nesebar (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast returns with Minyor Radnevo hosting Nesebar. Match starts May 23, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Minyor Radnevo host Nesebar at Stadion Minyor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.