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Nesebar vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
0 – 3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
3/11/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 23Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Nesebar65%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.29
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.04

Nesebar creates 120% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 92 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
84%
Nesebar or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
35%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
42%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
90%
Nesebar 2+ goals
66%
Nesebar 3+ goals
40%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
80%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.29

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nesebar scores more
65%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
16%

Nesebar at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Nesebar 0–3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat Nesebar 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.