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Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Nesebar
Nesebar
9/20/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 6Stadion Sadovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II42%
×Draw25%
Nesebar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.56
Nesebar
1.35

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 99 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.75
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.15
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw
67%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Nesebar
75%
Draw or Nesebar
58%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
21%
Nesebar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
46%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
21%
Nesebar 1+ goals
74%
Nesebar 2+ goals
39%
Nesebar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
56%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
42%
level
25%
Nesebar scores more
33%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3–5 Nesebar

Nesebar beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 5-3 in Third League - Southeast on September 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo in Sadovo.