Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nesebar vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
11/11/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Nesebar71%
×Draw16%
Levski Karlovo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.57
Levski Karlovo
0.99

Nesebar creates 160% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 136 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
87%
Nesebar or Levski Karlovo
84%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
29%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
49%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
92%
Nesebar 2+ goals
72%
Nesebar 3+ goals
47%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
63%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
26%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
85%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.57

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nesebar scores more
71%
level
16%
Levski Karlovo scores more
13%

Nesebar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nesebar vs Levski Karlovo

Nesebar beat Levski Karlovo 5-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.