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Levski Karlovo vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Nesebar
Nesebar
5/19/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 36Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Levski Karlovo40%
×Draw25%
Nesebar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
1.44
Nesebar
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 99 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
65%
Levski Karlovo or Nesebar
75%
Draw or Nesebar
60%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
19%
Nesebar wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
76%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
42%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
18%
Nesebar 1+ goals
74%
Nesebar 2+ goals
39%
Nesebar 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
53%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
40%
level
25%
Nesebar scores more
35%

Levski Karlovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Karlovo vs Nesebar

Nesebar beat Levski Karlovo 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.