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Nesebar vs Izvor Gorski izvor — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
1 – 3
Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
3/13/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nesebar64%
×Draw20%
Izvor Gorski izvor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.08
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.92

Nesebar creates 126% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.88

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.24

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
84%
Nesebar or Izvor Gorski izvor
80%
Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor
36%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
40%
Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
87%
Nesebar 2+ goals
61%
Nesebar 3+ goals
34%
Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
60%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
23%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
80%
Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.08

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nesebar scores more
64%
level
20%
Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
16%

Nesebar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Nesebar 1–3 Izvor Gorski izvor

Izvor Gorski izvor beat Nesebar 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.