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Izvor Gorski izvor vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
FT
0 – 0
Nesebar
Nesebar
8/29/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 4Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor45%
×Draw25%
Nesebar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.51
Nesebar
1.19

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.65
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
0.82
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw
70%
Izvor Gorski izvor or Nesebar
75%
Draw or Nesebar
55%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
22%
Nesebar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
78%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
44%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
19%
Nesebar 1+ goals
70%
Nesebar 2+ goals
33%
Nesebar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
60%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
45%
level
25%
Nesebar scores more
30%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Izvor Gorski izvor 0–0 Nesebar

Izvor Gorski izvor and Nesebar drew 0-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gorski Izvor in Gorski Izvor.