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Nesebar vs Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
2 – 2
Haskovo
Haskovo
8/31/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Nesebar68%
×Draw19%
Haskovo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.27
Haskovo
0.91

Nesebar creates 149% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 47 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Haskovo
0.87

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Haskovo
1.62

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
86%
Nesebar or Haskovo
81%
Draw or Haskovo
32%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
44%
Haskovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
90%
Nesebar 2+ goals
66%
Nesebar 3+ goals
39%
Haskovo 1+ goals
60%
Haskovo 2+ goals
23%
Haskovo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
83%
Haskovo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Haskovo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Haskovo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.27

Haskovo attack 0.87 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Nesebar scores more
68%
level
19%
Haskovo scores more
14%

Nesebar at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nesebar vs Haskovo

Nesebar and Haskovo drew 2-2 in Third League - Southeast on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.