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Haskovo vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
CANC
00:00
Nesebar
Nesebar
3/22/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 22Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo38%
×Draw25%
Nesebar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.44
Nesebar
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 99 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
63%
Haskovo or Nesebar
75%
Draw or Nesebar
62%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
18%
Nesebar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
76%
Haskovo 2+ goals
42%
Haskovo 3+ goals
18%
Nesebar 1+ goals
75%
Nesebar 2+ goals
41%
Nesebar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
51%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haskovo scores more
38%
level
25%
Nesebar scores more
37%

Haskovo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haskovo vs Nesebar — Match Preview

Haskovo face Nesebar on March 22, 2020 in this Third League - Southeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Haskovo host Nesebar at Stadion Dimitar Kanev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.