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Nesebar vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
7/20/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nesebar32%
×Draw27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
1.17
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.36

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 71 away

creates per match

Nesebar
1.09
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.35

allows per match

Nesebar
1.38
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
59%
Nesebar or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
73%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
68%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
13%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
69%
Nesebar 2+ goals
33%
Nesebar 3+ goals
11%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
74%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
39%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
44%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 1.09 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nesebar scores more
32%
level
27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
41%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nesebar vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Nesebar beat CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2-1 in Second League on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.