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CSKA 1948 Sofia II vs Nesebar — Second League 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Nesebar
Nesebar
12/4/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II60%
×Draw23%
Nesebar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.77
Nesebar
0.82

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.56
Nesebar
0.71

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
0.94
Nesebar
1.97

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw
83%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Nesebar
77%
Draw or Nesebar
40%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
34%
Nesebar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
83%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
53%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
26%
Nesebar 1+ goals
56%
Nesebar 2+ goals
20%
Nesebar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
78%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Nesebar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Nesebar defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nesebar attack 0.71 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
60%
level
23%
Nesebar scores more
17%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3–3 Nesebar

CSKA 1948 Sofia II and Nesebar drew 3-3 in Second League on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.