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Nesebar vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
3 – 3
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
3/3/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Nesebar74%
×Draw15%
Borislav 200911%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.72
Borislav 2009
0.93

Nesebar creates 192% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 79 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
89%
Nesebar or Borislav 2009
85%
Draw or Borislav 2009
26%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
53%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
93%
Nesebar 2+ goals
75%
Nesebar 3+ goals
50%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
61%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
24%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
88%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.72

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Nesebar scores more
74%
level
15%
Borislav 2009 scores more
11%

Nesebar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nesebar vs Borislav 2009

Nesebar and Borislav 2009 drew 3-3 in Third League - Southeast on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.