Borislav 2009 3–0 Nesebar: Result & Stats

Borislav 2009

FT

3 – 0

Nesebar

5/22/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 33Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200939%

×Draw25%

Nesebar36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borislav 2009Expected goals in this matchNesebar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.42

Borislav 2009

1.48

Nesebar

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 99 away

1.59

creates per match

1.55

1.29

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Borislav 2009

1.59

Nesebar

1.55

allows per match

Borislav 2009

1.29

Nesebar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Nesebar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw

64%

Borislav 2009 or Nesebar

75%

Draw or Nesebar

61%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

19%

Nesebar wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

77%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

43%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

19%

Nesebar 1+ goals

76%

Nesebar 2+ goals

41%

Nesebar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

52%

Nesebar (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more

39%

level

25%

Nesebar scores more

36%

Borislav 2009 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff