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Nesebar vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
3 – 0
Beroe II
Beroe II
3/5/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Nesebar78%
×Draw14%
Beroe II9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.85
Beroe II
0.85

Nesebar creates 235% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
91%
Nesebar or Beroe II
86%
Draw or Beroe II
22%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
58%
Beroe II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
94%
Nesebar 2+ goals
77%
Nesebar 3+ goals
53%
Beroe II 1+ goals
57%
Beroe II 2+ goals
21%
Beroe II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
90%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.85

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Nesebar scores more
78%
level
14%
Beroe II scores more
9%

Nesebar at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Nesebar 3–0 Beroe II

Nesebar beat Beroe II 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.