Beroe II 0–3 Nesebar: Result & Stats

Beroe II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Nesebar

5/11/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 34Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II30%

×Draw24%

Nesebar46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beroe IIExpected goals in this matchNesebar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.67

Beroe II

1.30

Nesebar

1.67

Nesebar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 99 away

1.22

creates per match

1.55

1.78

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Beroe II

1.22

Nesebar

1.55

allows per match

Beroe II

1.78

Nesebar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par

Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Nesebar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw

54%

Beroe II or Nesebar

76%

Draw or Nesebar

70%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+

13%

Nesebar wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals

73%

Beroe II 2+ goals

37%

Beroe II 3+ goals

14%

Nesebar 1+ goals

81%

Nesebar 2+ goals

50%

Nesebar 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)

39%

Nesebar (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beroe II scores more

30%

level

24%

Nesebar scores more

46%

Nesebar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff