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Nesebar vs Atletik Kuklen — Third League - Southeast 2018

Nesebar
Nesebar
FT
3 – 0
Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
2/24/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Nesebar71%
×Draw16%
Atletik Kuklen12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nesebar
2.56
Atletik Kuklen
0.97

Nesebar creates 164% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 135 away

creates per match

Nesebar
2.92
Atletik Kuklen
1.00

allows per match

Nesebar
0.95
Atletik Kuklen
2.21

finishing

Nesebar+0.00on par
Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nesebar ↓

Atletik Kuklen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Nesebar or draw
88%
Nesebar or Atletik Kuklen
84%
Draw or Atletik Kuklen
29%

Winning margin

Nesebar wins by 2+
49%
Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nesebar 1+ goals
92%
Nesebar 2+ goals
72%
Nesebar 3+ goals
46%
Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
62%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
25%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nesebar (draw refunded)
85%
Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nesebar at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.95 · 100 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nesebar attack 2.92 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.56

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Nesebar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nesebar scores more
71%
level
16%
Atletik Kuklen scores more
12%

Nesebar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nesebar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nesebar 3 – 0 Atletik Kuklen

Nesebar beat Atletik Kuklen 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Nesebar.