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Atletik Kuklen vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nesebar
Nesebar
4/29/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Atletik Kuklen38%
×Draw25%
Nesebar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletik Kuklen
1.42
Nesebar
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 99 away

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.46
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.21
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw
64%
Atletik Kuklen or Nesebar
75%
Draw or Nesebar
62%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
18%
Nesebar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
76%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
41%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
17%
Nesebar 1+ goals
75%
Nesebar 2+ goals
40%
Nesebar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
51%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more
38%
level
25%
Nesebar scores more
36%

Atletik Kuklen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletik Kuklen vs Nesebar

Nesebar beat Atletik Kuklen 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 29, 2026.