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NEROCA vs Namdhari — I-League 2019

NEROCA
NEROCA
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Namdhari
Namdhari
11/18/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 5Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

NEROCA35%
×Draw25%
Namdhari40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEROCA
1.33
Namdhari
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

creates per match

NEROCA
1.14
Namdhari
1.27

allows per match

NEROCA
1.61
Namdhari
1.53

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par
Namdhari+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Namdhari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw
60%
NEROCA or Namdhari
75%
Draw or Namdhari
65%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+
15%
Namdhari wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals
74%
NEROCA 2+ goals
38%
NEROCA 3+ goals
15%
Namdhari 1+ goals
76%
Namdhari 2+ goals
42%
Namdhari 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)
47%
Namdhari (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Namdhari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Namdhari defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Namdhari attack 1.27 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NEROCA scores more
35%
level
25%
Namdhari scores more
40%

Namdhari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Namdhari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: NEROCA 2–1 Namdhari

NEROCA beat Namdhari 2-1 in I-League on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.