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Namdhari vs NEROCA — I-League 2019

Namdhari
Namdhari
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
NEROCA
NEROCA
2/14/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 15Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Namdhari46%
×Draw24%
NEROCA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namdhari
1.71
NEROCA
1.35

Namdhari creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 45 away

creates per match

Namdhari
1.32
NEROCA
1.20

allows per match

Namdhari
1.50
NEROCA
2.11

finishing

Namdhari+0.00on par
NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namdhari ↓

NEROCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Namdhari or draw
70%
Namdhari or NEROCA
76%
Draw or NEROCA
54%

Winning margin

Namdhari wins by 2+
24%
NEROCA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Namdhari 1+ goals
82%
Namdhari 2+ goals
51%
Namdhari 3+ goals
24%
NEROCA 1+ goals
74%
NEROCA 2+ goals
39%
NEROCA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Namdhari (draw refunded)
60%
NEROCA (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namdhari at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namdhari attack 1.32 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Namdhari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Namdhari scores more
46%
level
24%
NEROCA scores more
30%

Namdhari at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Namdhari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Namdhari 3–2 NEROCA

Namdhari beat NEROCA 3-2 in I-League on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Namdhari Stadium in Ludhiana.