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NEROCA vs Inter Kashi — I-League 2019

NEROCA
NEROCA
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Inter Kashi
Inter Kashi
12/1/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 8Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

NEROCA34%
×Draw25%
Inter Kashi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEROCA
1.33
Inter Kashi
1.50

Inter Kashi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 23 away

creates per match

NEROCA
1.14
Inter Kashi
1.39

allows per match

NEROCA
1.61
Inter Kashi
1.52

finishing

NEROCA+0.00on par
Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEROCA ↓

Inter Kashi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

NEROCA or draw
59%
NEROCA or Inter Kashi
75%
Draw or Inter Kashi
66%

Winning margin

NEROCA wins by 2+
15%
Inter Kashi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

NEROCA 1+ goals
74%
NEROCA 2+ goals
38%
NEROCA 3+ goals
15%
Inter Kashi 1+ goals
78%
Inter Kashi 2+ goals
44%
Inter Kashi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

NEROCA (draw refunded)
45%
Inter Kashi (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEROCA at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

Inter Kashi away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEROCA attack 1.14 + Inter Kashi defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Inter Kashi attack 1.39 + NEROCA defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

NEROCA scores more
34%
level
25%
Inter Kashi scores more
41%

Inter Kashi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEROCA vs Inter Kashi

Inter Kashi beat NEROCA 3-1 in I-League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.