Inter Kashi 3–1 NEROCA: Result & Stats | I-League

Inter Kashi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

NEROCA

2/27/2024

I-League · Round 18Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter Kashi55%

×Draw20%

NEROCA25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter KashiExpected goals in this matchNEROCA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.45

Inter Kashi

2.23

NEROCA

1.45

Inter Kashi creates 54% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 45 away

2.35

creates per match

1.20

1.70

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Inter Kashi

2.35

NEROCA

1.20

allows per match

Inter Kashi

1.70

NEROCA

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par

NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

NEROCA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw

75%

Inter Kashi or NEROCA

80%

Draw or NEROCA

45%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+

34%

NEROCA wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals

89%

Inter Kashi 2+ goals

65%

Inter Kashi 3+ goals

38%

NEROCA 1+ goals

77%

NEROCA 2+ goals

42%

NEROCA 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)

69%

NEROCA (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.23

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Inter Kashi scores more

55%

level

20%

NEROCA scores more

25%

Inter Kashi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff