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Neretvanac Opuzen vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
FT
1 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
11/30/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 15Stadion Podvornica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Neretvanac Opuzen54%
×Draw23%
Hrvatski vitez23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.77
Hrvatski vitez
1.07

Neretvanac Opuzen creates 65% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 93 away

creates per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.56
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Neretvanac Opuzen
1.03
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretvanac Opuzen ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Neretvanac Opuzen or draw
77%
Neretvanac Opuzen or Hrvatski vitez
77%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
46%

Winning margin

Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
30%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
83%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
53%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
26%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
66%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
70%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretvanac Opuzen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.56 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
54%
level
23%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
23%

Neretvanac Opuzen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neretvanac Opuzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Neretvanac Opuzen 1–0 Hrvatski vitez

Neretvanac Opuzen beat Hrvatski vitez 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Podvornica in Opuzen.