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Hrvatski vitez vs Neretvanac Opuzen — Third NL - Jug 2019

Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Neretvanac Opuzen
Neretvanac Opuzen
5/31/2025Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 30Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Hrvatski vitez60%
×Draw21%
Neretvanac Opuzen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski vitez
2.02
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.02

Hrvatski vitez creates 98% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez
1.99
Neretvanac Opuzen
1.09

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez
0.95
Neretvanac Opuzen
2.04

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par
Neretvanac Opuzen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Neretvanac Opuzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw
81%
Hrvatski vitez or Neretvanac Opuzen
79%
Draw or Neretvanac Opuzen
40%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
37%
Neretvanac Opuzen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
87%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
60%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
33%
Neretvanac Opuzen 1+ goals
64%
Neretvanac Opuzen 2+ goals
27%
Neretvanac Opuzen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
77%
Neretvanac Opuzen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Neretvanac Opuzen away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Neretvanac Opuzen defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.02

Neretvanac Opuzen attack 1.09 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more
60%
level
21%
Neretvanac Opuzen scores more
19%

Hrvatski vitez at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvatski vitez vs Neretvanac Opuzen

Hrvatski vitez and Neretvanac Opuzen drew 3-3 in Third NL - Jug on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Gordan Demo in Posedarje.