Neretva Metković 0–2 HNK Zadar: Result & Stats

Neretva Metković

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

HNK Zadar

5/2/2026

Third NL - Jug · South - 26Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Neretva Metković40%

×Draw25%

HNK Zadar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neretva MetkovićExpected goals in this matchHNK Zadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.31

Neretva Metković

1.45

HNK Zadar

1.31

Neretva Metković creates 11% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 77 away

1.80

creates per match

1.58

1.05

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Neretva Metković

1.80

HNK Zadar

1.58

allows per match

Neretva Metković

1.05

HNK Zadar

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par

HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

HNK Zadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw

66%

Neretva Metković or HNK Zadar

75%

Draw or HNK Zadar

60%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+

19%

HNK Zadar wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals

77%

Neretva Metković 2+ goals

42%

Neretva Metković 3+ goals

18%

HNK Zadar 1+ goals

73%

HNK Zadar 2+ goals

38%

HNK Zadar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)

54%

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Neretva Metković scores more

40%

level

25%

HNK Zadar scores more

34%

Neretva Metković at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff