HNK Zadar 0–3 Neretva Metković: Result & Stats

HNK Zadar

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Neretva Metković

11/2/2025

Third NL - Jug · South - 11Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

HNK Zadar64%

×Draw19%

Neretva Metković17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK ZadarExpected goals in this matchNeretva Metković

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.09

HNK Zadar

2.31

Neretva Metković

1.09

HNK Zadar creates 112% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 102 away

2.86

creates per match

1.44

0.75

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

HNK Zadar

2.86

Neretva Metković

1.44

allows per match

HNK Zadar

0.75

Neretva Metković

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Neretva Metković →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw

83%

HNK Zadar or Neretva Metković

81%

Draw or Neretva Metković

36%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+

42%

Neretva Metković wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals

90%

HNK Zadar 2+ goals

67%

HNK Zadar 3+ goals

40%

Neretva Metković 1+ goals

66%

Neretva Metković 2+ goals

30%

Neretva Metković 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)

79%

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Neretva Metković away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.77 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Neretva Metković defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.31

Neretva Metković attack 1.44 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

HNK Zadar scores more

64%

level

19%

Neretva Metković scores more

17%

HNK Zadar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff