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Neretva Metković vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
FT
4 – 2
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
9/13/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 4Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Neretva Metković70%
×Draw17%
HNK Hajduk Split II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neretva Metković
2.44
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.93

Neretva Metković creates 162% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Neretva Metković
1.80
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

Neretva Metković
1.05
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw
87%
Neretva Metković or HNK Hajduk Split II
83%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
30%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+
48%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals
91%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
70%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
43%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
61%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
24%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
85%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.44

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Neretva Metković scores more
70%
level
17%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
13%

Neretva Metković at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Neretva Metković 4–2 HNK Hajduk Split II

Neretva Metković beat HNK Hajduk Split II 4-2 in Third NL - Jug on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište Iza Vage in Metković.