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HNK Hajduk Split II vs Neretva Metković — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
FT
0 – 4
Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
3/26/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 19Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II42%
×Draw23%
Neretva Metković35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.69
Neretva Metković
1.52

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Neretva Metković
1.44

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II
1.60
Neretva Metković
1.77

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par
Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Neretva Metković →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw
65%
HNK Hajduk Split II or Neretva Metković
77%
Draw or Neretva Metković
58%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
22%
Neretva Metković wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
82%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
50%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
24%
Neretva Metković 1+ goals
78%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
45%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
55%
Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Neretva Metković away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.77 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.60 + Neretva Metković defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Neretva Metković attack 1.44 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
42%
level
23%
Neretva Metković scores more
35%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: HNK Hajduk Split II 0–4 Neretva Metković

Neretva Metković beat HNK Hajduk Split II 4-0 in Third NL - Jug on March 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.