Neretva Metković 0–0 GOŠK Dubrovnik: Result & Stats

Neretva Metković

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GOŠK Dubrovnik

4/30/2025

Third NL - Jug · South - 25Igralište Iza Vage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Neretva Metković57%

×Draw23%

GOŠK Dubrovnik20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neretva MetkovićExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Dubrovnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.96

Neretva Metković

1.79

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.96

Neretva Metković creates 86% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

1.80

creates per match

0.86

1.05

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Neretva Metković

1.80

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.86

allows per match

Neretva Metković

1.05

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neretva Metković+0.00on par

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neretva Metković ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Neretva Metković or draw

80%

Neretva Metković or GOŠK Dubrovnik

77%

Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik

43%

Winning margin

Neretva Metković wins by 2+

32%

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Neretva Metković 1+ goals

83%

Neretva Metković 2+ goals

53%

Neretva Metković 3+ goals

26%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals

62%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals

25%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Neretva Metković (draw refunded)

74%

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neretva Metković at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neretva Metković attack 1.80 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Neretva Metković defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Neretva Metković scores more

57%

level

23%

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more

20%

Neretva Metković at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Neretva Metković will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff