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GOŠK Dubrovnik vs Neretva Metković — Third NL - Jug 2019

GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
4/4/2026Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 21Gradski stadion Lapad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik45%
×Draw25%
Neretva Metković30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.55
Neretva Metković
1.21

GOŠK Dubrovnik creates 28% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.33
Neretva Metković
1.44

allows per match

GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.97
Neretva Metković
1.77

finishing

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par
Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOŠK Dubrovnik ↓

Neretva Metković →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

GOŠK Dubrovnik or draw
70%
GOŠK Dubrovnik or Neretva Metković
75%
Draw or Neretva Metković
55%

Winning margin

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
23%
Neretva Metković wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
79%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
46%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
20%
Neretva Metković 1+ goals
70%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
34%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
60%
Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOŠK Dubrovnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.97 · 102 matches

Neretva Metković away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.77 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 1.33 + Neretva Metković defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Neretva Metković attack 1.44 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
45%
level
25%
Neretva Metković scores more
30%

GOŠK Dubrovnik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GOŠK Dubrovnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOŠK Dubrovnik vs Neretva Metković

GOŠK Dubrovnik and Neretva Metković drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Lapad in Dubrovnik.