Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Neratovice-Byškovice vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
8/27/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 4Stadion Neratovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Neratovice-Byškovice48%
×Draw23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neratovice-Byškovice
1.84
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.40

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

creates per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.37
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.14

allows per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
0.66
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.31

finishing

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neratovice-Byškovice ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Neratovice-Byškovice or draw
71%
Neratovice-Byškovice or Arsenal Česká Lípa
77%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
52%

Winning margin

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
26%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
84%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
55%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
28%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
75%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
41%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
62%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neratovice-Byškovice at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 2.37 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.84

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 2.14 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
48%
level
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
29%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Neratovice-Byškovice 0–0 Arsenal Česká Lípa

Neratovice-Byškovice and Arsenal Česká Lípa drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Neratovice in Neratovice.