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Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Neratovice-Byškovice — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
6/18/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 30Městský stadion u Ploučnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa47%
×Draw22%
Neratovice-Byškovice31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.91
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.50

Arsenal Česká Lípa creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 66 away

creates per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.50
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.62

allows per match

Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.39
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.32

finishing

Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par
Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Česká Lípa ↓

Neratovice-Byškovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Arsenal Česká Lípa or draw
69%
Arsenal Česká Lípa or Neratovice-Byškovice
78%
Draw or Neratovice-Byškovice
53%

Winning margin

Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
26%
Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
85%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
57%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
30%
Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
78%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
44%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
61%
Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Česká Lípa at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Neratovice-Byškovice away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 2.50 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.91

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 1.62 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
47%
level
22%
Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
31%

Arsenal Česká Lípa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arsenal Česká Lípa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Arsenal Česká Lípa 2–5 Neratovice-Byškovice

Neratovice-Byškovice beat Arsenal Česká Lípa 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Městský stadion u Ploučnice in Česká Lípa.