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Neratovice-Byškovice vs Admira Praha II — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Admira Praha II
Admira Praha II
11/11/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 15Stadion Neratovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Neratovice-Byškovice68%
×Draw19%
Admira Praha II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.25
Admira Praha II
0.88

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 156% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.37
Admira Praha II
1.09

allows per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
0.66
Admira Praha II
2.13

finishing

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par
Admira Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neratovice-Byškovice ↓

Admira Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Neratovice-Byškovice or draw
87%
Neratovice-Byškovice or Admira Praha II
81%
Draw or Admira Praha II
32%

Winning margin

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
45%
Admira Praha II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
89%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
65%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
39%
Admira Praha II 1+ goals
59%
Admira Praha II 2+ goals
22%
Admira Praha II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
84%
Admira Praha II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neratovice-Byškovice at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Admira Praha II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 2.37 + Admira Praha II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.25

Admira Praha II attack 1.09 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
68%
level
19%
Admira Praha II scores more
13%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neratovice-Byškovice vs Admira Praha II

Neratovice-Byškovice beat Admira Praha II 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Neratovice in Neratovice.