Admira Praha II 0–0 Neratovice-Byškovice

Admira Praha II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Neratovice-Byškovice

6/10/2023

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 30Stadion Na Pecích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Admira Praha II34%

×Draw26%

Neratovice-Byškovice39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Admira Praha IIExpected goals in this matchNeratovice-Byškovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.35

Admira Praha II

1.25

Neratovice-Byškovice

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

1.18

creates per match

1.62

1.07

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Admira Praha II

1.18

Neratovice-Byškovice

1.62

allows per match

Admira Praha II

1.07

Neratovice-Byškovice

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Admira Praha II+0.00on par

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha II ↓

Neratovice-Byškovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Admira Praha II or draw

61%

Admira Praha II or Neratovice-Byškovice

74%

Draw or Neratovice-Byškovice

66%

Winning margin

Admira Praha II wins by 2+

15%

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Admira Praha II 1+ goals

71%

Admira Praha II 2+ goals

36%

Admira Praha II 3+ goals

13%

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals

74%

Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals

39%

Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha II (draw refunded)

47%

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Neratovice-Byškovice away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha II attack 1.18 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 1.62 + Admira Praha II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Admira Praha II scores more

34%

level

26%

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more

39%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff