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Neptūną Klaipėda vs Banga II — 1 Lyga 2026

Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
FT
2 – 1
Banga II
Banga II
8/22/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 19Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Neptūną Klaipėda61%
×Draw21%
Banga II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neptūną Klaipėda
2.02
Banga II
1.00

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 102% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 43 away

creates per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.93
Banga II
0.95

allows per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.06
Banga II
2.12

finishing

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par
Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neptūną Klaipėda ↓

Banga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Neptūną Klaipėda or draw
82%
Neptūną Klaipėda or Banga II
79%
Draw or Banga II
39%

Winning margin

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
37%
Banga II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
87%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
60%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
33%
Banga II 1+ goals
63%
Banga II 2+ goals
26%
Banga II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
77%
Banga II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neptūną Klaipėda at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 1.93 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.02

Banga II attack 0.95 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
61%
level
21%
Banga II scores more
18%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neptūną Klaipėda vs Banga II

Neptūną Klaipėda beat Banga II 2-1 in 1 Lyga on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė in Klaipėda.