Banga II 0–5 Neptūną Klaipėda: Result & Stats

Banga II

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Neptūną Klaipėda

3/27/2022

1 Lyga · Round 2Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Banga II24%

×Draw21%

Neptūną Klaipėda54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banga IIExpected goals in this matchNeptūną Klaipėda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.04

Banga II

1.30

Neptūną Klaipėda

2.04

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 57% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 79 away

1.14

creates per match

2.05

2.02

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Banga II

1.14

Neptūną Klaipėda

2.05

allows per match

Banga II

2.02

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banga II+0.00on par

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga II ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Banga II or draw

46%

Banga II or Neptūną Klaipėda

79%

Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda

76%

Winning margin

Banga II wins by 2+

10%

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Banga II 1+ goals

73%

Banga II 2+ goals

37%

Banga II 3+ goals

14%

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals

87%

Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals

60%

Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Banga II (draw refunded)

31%

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.02 · 43 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.47 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga II attack 1.14 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Banga II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Banga II scores more

24%

level

21%

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more

54%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff