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Neptūną Klaipėda vs Atmosfera — 1 Lyga 2026

Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
3/8/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 1Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Neptūną Klaipėda54%
×Draw22%
Atmosfera24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.92
Atmosfera
1.22

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 57% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 87 away

creates per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.93
Atmosfera
1.38

allows per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.06
Atmosfera
1.92

finishing

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par
Atmosfera+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neptūną Klaipėda ↓

Atmosfera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neptūną Klaipėda or draw
76%
Neptūną Klaipėda or Atmosfera
78%
Draw or Atmosfera
46%

Winning margin

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
31%
Atmosfera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
85%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
57%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
30%
Atmosfera 1+ goals
70%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
34%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
69%
Atmosfera (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neptūną Klaipėda at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Atmosfera away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.92 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 1.93 + Atmosfera defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.92

Atmosfera attack 1.38 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
54%
level
22%
Atmosfera scores more
24%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Neptūną Klaipėda 2–0 Atmosfera

Neptūną Klaipėda beat Atmosfera 2-0 in 1 Lyga on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė in Klaipėda.