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Atmosfera vs Neptūną Klaipėda — 1 Lyga 2026

Atmosfera
Atmosfera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
8/3/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 17Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Atmosfera27%
×Draw22%
Neptūną Klaipėda52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atmosfera
1.42
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.04

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 44% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 79 away

creates per match

Atmosfera
1.38
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.05

allows per match

Atmosfera
2.04
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.47

finishing

Atmosfera+0.00on par
Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atmosfera ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Atmosfera or draw
48%
Atmosfera or Neptūną Klaipėda
78%
Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda
73%

Winning margin

Atmosfera wins by 2+
12%
Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Atmosfera 1+ goals
76%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
41%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
17%
Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
87%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
60%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Atmosfera (draw refunded)
34%
Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atmosfera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.04 · 90 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.47 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atmosfera attack 1.38 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Atmosfera defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atmosfera scores more
27%
level
22%
Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
52%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atmosfera vs Neptūną Klaipėda

Atmosfera beat Neptūną Klaipėda 1-0 in 1 Lyga on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Mažeikių m. centrinis stadionas in Mažeikiai.