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Nepean vs Mt Druitt Town — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Nepean
Nepean
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
6/21/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 21Cook Park Saint Marys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean29%
×Draw23%
Mt Druitt Town48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepean
1.42
Mt Druitt Town
1.87

Mt Druitt Town creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

creates per match

Nepean
1.13
Mt Druitt Town
1.67

allows per match

Nepean
2.07
Mt Druitt Town
1.70

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par
Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

Mt Druitt Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nepean or draw
52%
Nepean or Mt Druitt Town
77%
Draw or Mt Druitt Town
71%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+
13%
Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals
76%
Nepean 2+ goals
41%
Nepean 3+ goals
17%
Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
85%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
56%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)
38%
Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Mt Druitt Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.67 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nepean scores more
29%
level
23%
Mt Druitt Town scores more
48%

Mt Druitt Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mt Druitt Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nepean vs Mt Druitt Town

Mt Druitt Town beat Nepean 4-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 21, 2024.

The match was played at Cook Park Saint Marys in Sydney.