Mt Druitt Town 2–1 Nepean: Result & Stats

Mt Druitt Town

FT

2 – 1

Nepean

3/15/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 6Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mt Druitt Town52%

×Draw24%

Nepean24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mt Druitt TownExpected goals in this matchNepean

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.10

Mt Druitt Town

1.72

Nepean

1.10

Mt Druitt Town creates 56% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

1.77

creates per match

0.67

1.54

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.77

Nepean

0.67

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.54

Nepean

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Nepean →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw

76%

Mt Druitt Town or Nepean

76%

Draw or Nepean

48%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+

28%

Nepean wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals

82%

Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals

51%

Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals

25%

Nepean 1+ goals

67%

Nepean 2+ goals

30%

Nepean 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)

68%

Nepean (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.77 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Nepean attack 0.67 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more

52%

level

24%

Nepean scores more

24%

Mt Druitt Town at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mt Druitt Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff