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Nepean vs Inter Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Nepean
Nepean
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Lions
Inter Lions
J. Hoban 90+1', 88'
L. Zepina 33'
Unknown 73'
8/7/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 19Jamison Park Field 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean32%
×Draw23%
Inter Lions45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepean
1.48
Inter Lions
1.80

Inter Lions creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Nepean
1.13
Inter Lions
1.53

allows per match

Nepean
2.07
Inter Lions
1.82

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par
Inter Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

Inter Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nepean or draw
55%
Nepean or Inter Lions
77%
Draw or Inter Lions
68%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+
15%
Inter Lions wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals
77%
Nepean 2+ goals
43%
Nepean 3+ goals
19%
Inter Lions 1+ goals
83%
Inter Lions 2+ goals
54%
Inter Lions 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)
41%
Inter Lions (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Inter Lions away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + Inter Lions defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Inter Lions attack 1.53 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nepean scores more
32%
level
23%
Inter Lions scores more
45%

Inter Lions at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
L. Zepina
73'
88'
J. Hoban
90+1'
J. Hoban

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nepean vs Inter Lions

Nepean beat Inter Lions 3-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 7, 2024.

Goals: L. Zepina (33'), ? (73'), J. Hoban (88', 90+1').

The match was played at Jamison Park Field 6 in Sydney.