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Inter Lions vs Nepean — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Inter Lions
Inter Lions
FT
1 – 0
Nepean
Nepean
3/2/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 4Majors Bay Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter Lions50%
×Draw24%
Nepean25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Lions
1.69
Nepean
1.13

Inter Lions creates 50% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Inter Lions
1.70
Nepean
0.67

allows per match

Inter Lions
1.59
Nepean
1.67

finishing

Inter Lions+0.00on par
Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Lions ↓

Nepean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter Lions or draw
75%
Inter Lions or Nepean
76%
Draw or Nepean
50%

Winning margin

Inter Lions wins by 2+
27%
Nepean wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inter Lions 1+ goals
82%
Inter Lions 2+ goals
50%
Inter Lions 3+ goals
24%
Nepean 1+ goals
68%
Nepean 2+ goals
31%
Nepean 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter Lions (draw refunded)
66%
Nepean (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Lions at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Lions attack 1.70 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nepean attack 0.67 + Inter Lions defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter Lions scores more
50%
level
24%
Nepean scores more
25%

Inter Lions at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Lions vs Nepean

Inter Lions beat Nepean 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Majors Bay Reserve in Sydney.